TFW Program Arrivals Fall to New Two-Year Low in Canada

New data shows a sharp decline in foreign worker arrivals. Canada recorded only 3,215 new temporary foreign workers in October 2025. This figure marked the lowest monthly total in two years. The federal immigration department released the data on December 16. Records available since December 2023 show no lower month.

This decline signals a major shift in worker intake. Earlier months showed stronger numbers. October changed that trend clearly. Officials continue to monitor these movements closely.

Policy Changes Drive the Slowdown

Government policies largely explain the drop. Authorities limited low-wage work permit processing. They also raised wage requirements for many jobs. Officials reduced the total size of the program. These actions aimed to slow arrivals steadily.

The government also paused permit approvals in regions with higher unemployment. Areas with jobless rates above six percent faced stricter rules. Employers also faced lower hiring limits. These changes reduced new approvals significantly.

Political Pressure Shapes Decisions

Public debate has surrounded the program for two years. Critics blame it for holding down wages. Others link it to housing shortages. Pressure grew as the labour market softened.

In September 2025, the Conservative Party called for the program’s end. Party leaders blamed it for youth unemployment. They argued that fewer foreign workers would help local job seekers. This debate added urgency to government action.

Seasonal Hiring No Longer Lifts Numbers

Early 2025 saw a short rise in arrivals. Seasonal jobs caused that increase. Farming and food services drove demand briefly. That rise faded quickly.

After May 2024, arrivals steadily declined. October confirmed the downward path. Seasonal demand no longer offset policy limits. Employers now hire fewer temporary workers overall.

Future Targets Show Smaller Program

The federal government plans further reductions. The latest immigration plan sets a 2026 target of 60,000 arrivals. That number marks a 27 percent cut. Last year’s target stood at 82,000.

Officials aim to balance labour needs and housing pressure. They also want to protect wages. The new target reflects these priorities clearly.

Other Programs Also See Declines

The trend does not stop with this program. Arrivals under another work permit stream also declined. International student arrivals dropped as well. October marked a two-year low for new students.

These declines suggest broader tightening. Canada now admits fewer temporary residents overall. Authorities appear focused on long-term stability.

What This Means Going Forward

Employers may face hiring challenges. Workers inside Canada may see stronger job prospects. Communities may feel less pressure on housing and services.

The numbers show a clear shift in direction. Canada now moves toward slower temporary growth. The coming months will reveal how lasting this change becomes.