Canada Sees First Population Drop in 2025 After Policy Shifts

Canada’s population declined during the third quarter of 2025. New early estimates show a clear shift. Between July 1 and October 1, the population fell by 76,068 people. This equals a drop of 0.2 percent.

This marked the first quarterly decline recorded in 2025. Recent years showed strong growth during the same period. Officials linked the change to fewer temporary residents living in Canada.

Most Regions See Declines

Most provinces and territories recorded population losses or no change. Ontario posted the largest decline at 0.4 percent. British Columbia followed with a 0.3 percent drop. Manitoba and the Northwest Territories each fell by 0.2 percent.

Only two regions showed growth. Alberta and Nunavut both increased by 0.2 percent. These gains failed to offset losses elsewhere.

This quarter differed sharply from recent trends. In 2023, Canada recorded record growth. The population grew by one percent that quarter. Growth slowed in 2024 but remained positive.

Temporary Residents Drive the Change

Falling numbers of non-permanent residents caused the population drop. Estimates show their numbers fell by 176,479 in the third quarter. This marked the largest decline since records began in 1971.

Earlier quarters in 2025 also showed declines. Those drops stayed much smaller. The third quarter decline proved far steeper.

The number of non-permanent residents fell from over three million in July. By October, estimates showed fewer than 2.85 million. Their share of the population dropped from 7.3 percent to 6.8 percent.

More people left than arrived during this period. Over 339,000 permits expired or ended. Only 163,026 new permits came through.

Students and Workers Most Affected

Almost every region saw fewer non-permanent residents. Only one region avoided a decline.

The largest reductions came among students and workers. Study permit holders dropped by more than 73,000. Those holding both work and study permits fell by over 67,000. Work permit holders alone dropped by more than 35,000.

Ontario and British Columbia recorded the sharpest student declines. These provinces host the most international students. Ontario alone lost over 47,000 study permit holders.

At the same time, asylum claimants continued to rise. Their numbers increased by 7,324. This marked the fifteenth straight quarterly rise. Total figures reached a record level.

Permanent Immigration Holds Steady

Permanent immigration continued at a steady pace. Canada welcomed 102,867 new permanent residents during the quarter. Officials described this level as consistent with recent periods.

These numbers aligned with national immigration targets. Permanent arrivals softened the overall population decline. They failed to fully offset temporary resident losses.

Policy Changes Behind the Shift

Federal policy changes played a major role. Officials limited low-wage foreign worker approvals in high unemployment regions. Employers lost access to new hires under those rules.

Spousal open work permits also faced tighter limits. Only select spouses now qualify. New language and study rules narrowed work permit access for graduates.

The government also capped study permit applications. Fewer permits reached approval. These steps aim to reduce temporary residents to five percent of the population by 2027.