Express Entry Sees 30% Drop in Top-Scoring Profiles

Canada’s Express Entry system showed signs of easing pressure at the top in early February. For the second month in a row, many of the highest-scoring profiles dropped out of the candidate pool. This shift may bring fresh hope to applicants with lower scores who wait for their chance to receive an invitation.

Between January 4 and February 2, a total of 6,238 candidates with scores above 500 left the system. Most of this change came from the 501 to 600 score range, which saw a sharp decline.

High scorers leave in large numbers

The number of candidates with scores between 501 and 600 fell from 21,013 to 14,911 in just one month. That drop of 6,102 profiles amounts to nearly 30 per cent. The group with scores above 600 also shrank, falling from 559 candidates to 423.

These two top score ranges now account for a much smaller share of the total pool than they did earlier this year. Analysts often view this trend as a sign that invitations or profile expiries have cleared out many of the strongest candidates.

Overall pool continues to grow

Despite the drop at the top, the total number of Express Entry profiles increased. The pool grew from 236,554 candidates on January 4 to 238,920 by February 2. That rise of 2,366 profiles came from growth across nearly every score range below 500.

Score bands between 351 and 400 added more than 800 candidates. Ranges between 401 and 480 also grew steadily, with several bands adding more than 700 profiles each. These increases more than offset the losses among the highest scorers.

What this means for lower scores

Express Entry ranks candidates by score and sends invitations to the highest-ranked profiles first. When fewer people sit above the 500 mark, those below may move closer to the top of the list.

This change does not guarantee an invitation, but it can improve the odds. Much still depends on the size of upcoming invitation rounds and whether they focus on specific categories or the general pool.

A closer look at today’s rankings

As of February 2, candidates with scores between 351 and 400 made up the largest share of the pool, accounting for more than 22 per cent. Scores between 471 and 480 followed closely behind.

Candidates in the 501 to 600 range now represent just over six per cent of all profiles. Those above 600 make up less than one per cent, placing them in the very top tier of the rankings.

Percentile data shows that candidates scoring above 500 sit within the top seven per cent of the entire pool. Those with scores below 400 now make up more than one-third of all profiles.

Outlook for coming months

If the trend continues, the Express Entry pool may become less crowded at the top. Many candidates will watch future invitation rounds closely to see whether this shift leads to lower cut-off scores.

For now, the system shows a clear change in balance, with fewer elite scores and steady growth among mid-range candidates.